Since Fidel Castro and his revolutionaries landed on the shores of Cuba on December 2, 1956, the island has, in many ways, become a stronghold for the communist experiment. In the years following the revolution, Fidel implemented sweeping social reforms, providing universal healthcare, education and pensions to his people. While other developing countries suffered under volatile political conflict, Fidel’s strong leadership united and inspired his country. Although Cubans sacrificed political liberties for the sake of the welfare state, many seemed satisfied with the fragile benefits of communist rule.
Alas, utopia is a mirage. When the Cold War sputtered to an end in the late 1980s, Cuba suddenly found itself economically severed from its Soviet lifeline. From 1989 to 1993, the Cuban GDP declined by 35% due to a lack of Soviet aid, a tightened U.S. trade embargo, energy shortages and famine. To resolve the crisis, Fidel was forced to open up to new foreign investment and legalize some private businesses.
While temporary, Fidel’s economic adjustments gave us a glimpse of something rarely seen in the fifty years of Cuban communism: capitalism. With his brother Raul now President, Cuba is inching further down that path. The administration itself is changing, as Raul has “quietly discarded nearly all of Fidel’s ministers and key aides.” New personnel means new policy, and in April 2011, the Sixth Congress proposed 313 guidelines for innovative economic reforms. The guidelines propose creating private property out of state-owned farmland, decreasing the amount of state workers, and encouraging investment by private enterprises. In fact, economist Omar Everleny predicts that “some 35-40% of the workforce of 4.1m should end up in the private sector by 2015.” Echoing the trend towards privatization, Raul called for a “decentralized system where planning will prevail” in his speech to the Congress, and admits that the “lesson taught by practical experience is that an excessive centralization inhibits the development of initiatives in society and in the entire production line…” Sounds a bit like “Socialism with Cuban Characteristics,” doesn’t it?
Wary of an influx of foreign corruption, the government is a little more hesitant in the international arena, where membership in the IMF or World Bank would ease its credit problems. Unifying the two national currencies – the CUC (“convertible peso”) and the Cuban peso – is also an important measure that would greatly facilitate trade. With great caution, Cuba is steadily opening itself up to the outside economy. The evidence is in Miami, where Cuban émigrés maintain close relations with their homeland. Unlike Fidel, who denounced them as gusanos (“worms”), Raul shows more hospitality to Cuban-Americans, who often travel to Havana to sell goods purchased in the U.S.
So why is Cuba doing this? Although the communists still clearly control the government, they are implementing reforms that seem antithetical to the creed of the Cuban Revolution. Che must be rolling in his grave. After over fifty years of communist rule, the Cubans are at a crossroads – how do they balance past political tradition with the present reality? Surely, they have to compromise. The economic pains are too severe. The inefficiency is too palpable. Consider state-owned farms, which account for 75% of all agricultural land. In 2007, 45% of this land was not being cultivated, much of it covered in weeds. Hammered by financial recession, defaults on debt and hurricane damage, reform seems inevitable. There’s a reason why tens of thousands of Cubans emigrate every year.
The economics are important, but ideology may play an even larger role. In the current situation, the glory of the Cuban Revolution seems like a distant past. Fidel, who in many ways is the symbol of that valiant struggle, is 85 years old and ill. Raul is 80, and with his fellow comrades likewise ageing, it is a mystery who will be his successor. The Castro brothers were popular because of their personality and nationalistic fervor. How will the next generation of Cubans respond to their message? Will they share the affection for the communist cause? Can the torch be passed on?
If one thing is certain, it is that true Cuban independence has failed. Dominated imperially by Spain and the U.S., Cuba finally achieved freedom during Fidel’s revolution. Shortly after, however, the Soviet Union stepped in, and the island was essentially a pawn during the Cold War. Amidst economic struggles, Cuba has now turned to Venezuela.
Perhaps current reforms – which vaguely resemble early free-market capitalism – are an escape from a long history of dependency. It seems to be working fantastically for China, where Mao was once admired by Fidel and his comrades. Leadership turnover, stale ideology and economic woes signal a future Cuban transformation.
