Tuesday, November 13, 2012

The Case for Not Going Pro

Every student athlete wants to make it to the big show.  The benefits of going pro are tantalizing.  But sometimes they are a little too hasty, and Hollis Thompson is a case in point.  Forgoing his senior season at Georgetown, Thompson declared for the NBA draft last spring. 

So what has he been up to since he left the Hilltop?  And was it worth leaving for the NBA? 

After going undrafted in June, Hollis was picked up a month later by the Oklahoma City Thunder, a perennial title-contender.  He signed a three-year contract with the team.  Sounds sexy, right?

Not so fast.  Hollis was soon demoted to the Thunder’s Development League affiliate, the Tulsa 66ers.  On the bright side, he has his foot in the door, and there will be plenty of opportunities to climb up the ranks.  Last year, twenty-seven percent of NBA players had some D-League experience, including stand-out Jeremy Lin.  But success is far from guaranteed, and the last two years on his contract are conditional.  The D-League is no slouch.  It is filled with many second-tier college players like Kevin Jones and Darius Johnson-Odom, guys who have arguably better resumes than Hollis and will definitely give him a run for his money.

Still, it is the D-League.  The 66ers are one of sixteen teams that no one really pays much attention to, filled with handfuls of wanna-be NBA players whose names are forgotten unless they get called up to the big show.  For the time being, Hollis is one of those names.  

Sure, there is potential.  Next month or next year might be better.  But in evaluating the wisdom of Hollis’ decision to leave early, the only thing that matters is what he is doing right now. 

At this exact moment, Hollis could be back at Georgetown.  Imagine what he sacrificed to play for the 66ers.  Imagine what could have been if he had stayed.  As the lone senior and leading outside shooter, Hollis would be the unquestioned leader of the Hoyas and the big man on campus.  Alongside Otto Porter, he would be the cornerstone of the Hoyas’ offense, with plenty of opportunities to improve his game after an underwhelming junior season.  Next year, he would have an even better shot at getting drafted and playing in the NBA. 

And did I forget to mention that Hollis would be back in college, some of the most fun and exciting years in life?  It is basically a theme-park over here.  In addition, he would be finishing his degree at Georgetown!  Does he not want to graduate?  For a guy who has no guarantee of playing basketball for the rest of his life, that education could pay huge dividends in the future.  It is difficult to put a price on something like that.

Of course, you cannot really blame him for leaving early.  Maybe he did not really like being at Georgetown, or was ready to start a new job and a new career.  Last year, Hollis had an outside chance of getting drafted, so why not roll the dice?  He had an even better chance of being signed as a free agent, so why not forgo his senior season? 

Hollis might end up in the NBA one way or another, maybe even this year.  But that’s not the point.  If he had stayed at Georgetown, he probably would have gotten to the big show anyway.  Unless he had a complete meltdown or a freak injury, an extra year in college would have boosted his basketball resume, not diminished it.

I wonder what Hollis is thinking now.  Did he make the right choice?  I do not think so.  He could be playing for a premiere college basketball program, living on the Hilltop and getting an education on a full scholarship worth much more than his current salary. 

Hollis gave up a lot when he left this school.  For what?  For playing with the 66ers.  For living in the middle of nowhere.  For making $20k.  Doesn’t really sound like the big show, at least not yet.

Next year, Otto Porter will have to make the same decision.  I wonder if he is willing to make the same sacrifices.